How We Estimate Your Solar Savings
Last updated April 2026. All figures from public regulator and government sources.
Current Electricity Rates in NSW
The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) sets a Default Market Offer (DMO) each financial year — the maximum a retailer can charge customers on standing offers. For 2025-26, the DMO in the Ausgrid distribution zone (Greater Sydney) is approximately 33.8c/kWh with a daily supply charge of around $1.17/day.
Most households are on market offers slightly below the DMO. Here are typical residential usage rates from the three largest NSW retailers as of early 2026:
| Retailer | Plan | Usage Rate | Daily Supply |
|---|---|---|---|
| Origin Energy | Solar Boost Plus | 32.6c/kWh | $1.12/day |
| AGL | Solar Savers | 34.1c/kWh | $1.19/day |
| EnergyAustralia | Total Plan Home | 33.4c/kWh | $1.15/day |
Rates shown are for the Ausgrid distribution zone (Greater Sydney) on single-rate tariffs. Time-of-use plans vary. Source: AER Energy Made Easy, retailer websites, April 2026.
Electricity Price Trend
NSW residential electricity prices have increased significantly over the past five years. According to the AEMC’s residential electricity price trends report:
| Year | Avg Annual Bill (NSW) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | $1,408 | — |
| 2022-23 | $1,622 | +15.2% |
| 2023-24 | $1,856 | +14.4% |
| 2024-25 | $1,996 | +7.5% |
| 2025-26 (est.) | $2,074 | +3.9% |
That’s a 47% increase since 2021. The AEMC forecasts continued increases driven by network costs and the energy transition. Solar locks in your generation cost at effectively $0/kWh for 25+ years, insulating you from future rises.
How We Calculate Savings by Postcode
Our postcode-level estimates are based on three inputs:
1. Solar Irradiance (How Much Sun You Get)
The Bureau of Meteorology publishes solar exposure data by location. We use peak sun hours (PSH) to estimate how much electricity a standard 6.6kW system generates daily in each zone. Western Sydney averages ~4.7 PSH; coastal areas ~4.4 PSH; southern states less.
2. Average Household Consumption
The AER’s Annual Retail Markets Report provides average consumption by distribution zone. The NSW average is approximately 18-20 kWh/day. Western Sydney households typically consume more (~22-26 kWh/day) due to air conditioning load, while inner-city homes use less (~15-18 kWh/day).
3. Self-Consumption Rate & Feed-in Tariff
Not all solar energy is used directly — surplus is exported to the grid. We assume a 30-35% self-consumption rate for solar-only systems (industry standard per APVI) and 70-80% with a battery. Self-consumed solar offsets electricity at the full retail rate (~33c/kWh). Exported solar earns the feed-in tariff, currently 5-8c/kWh in NSW depending on retailer.
Example: 6.6kW System in Western Sydney (Postcode 2150)
Daily generation: 6.6kW x 4.7 PSH = ~31 kWh/day
Self-consumed (32%): 9.9 kWh x 33c = $3.27/day saved
Exported (68%): 21.1 kWh x 6c = $1.27/day earned
Total daily benefit: $4.54/day = ~$1,657/yr (solar only)
With a 10kWh battery (75% self-consumption):
Self-consumed: 23.3 kWh x 33c = $7.69/day saved
Exported: 7.7 kWh x 6c = $0.46/day earned
Total daily benefit: $8.15/day = ~$2,975/yr
Our postcode estimates show a range that spans solar-only (lower end) through solar + battery (upper end), reflecting the system type the homeowner is considering. Actual savings depend on roof orientation, shading, household usage patterns, and the specific system installed — which is exactly why we connect you with qualified installers who can assess your property.
Estimated Savings by Region
| Region | Avg PSH | Est. Savings/yr |
|---|---|---|
| Western Sydney | 4.7 | $2,100 – $2,800 |
| Hills District | 4.6 | $2,000 – $2,600 |
| South & Sutherland | 4.5 | $1,800 – $2,400 |
| North Shore | 4.5 | $1,700 – $2,200 |
| Northern Beaches | 4.4 | $1,700 – $2,300 |
| Central Coast | 4.5 | $1,700 – $2,300 |
| Eastern Suburbs | 4.4 | $1,500 – $2,100 |
| Sydney CBD & Inner | 4.4 | $1,400 – $1,900 |
| Newcastle & Hunter | 4.6 | $1,800 – $2,500 |
| Wollongong & Illawarra | 4.4 | $1,700 – $2,300 |
| Blue Mountains | 4.3 | $1,600 – $2,200 |
Based on a 6.6kW system. Lower estimate = solar only (30-35% self-consumption). Upper estimate = solar + 10kWh battery (70-80% self-consumption). Assumes current retail electricity rate of ~33c/kWh and feed-in tariff of ~6c/kWh.
Sources
- AER Default Market Offer 2025-26 — Australian Energy Regulator. Sets maximum electricity prices by distribution zone.
- AEMC Residential Electricity Price Trends 2025 — Australian Energy Market Commission. Annual bill benchmarks and forecasts.
- BOM Solar Exposure Data — Bureau of Meteorology. Daily solar exposure and peak sun hours by location.
- APVI Solar Performance Data — Australian PV Institute. Self-consumption rates and system performance benchmarks.
- AER Annual Retail Markets Report 2024-25 — Average household consumption by distribution zone.
Want to Know Your Exact Savings?
These are estimates. A qualified installer will assess your roof, shading, and usage to give you an exact quote — for free.